The F-35: Missteps, False Promises, and the Road to Cancellation
Introduction to the F-35 Program
The F-35, sometimes referred to as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), is an American multirole fighter aircraft currently in use by the U.S. military and a growing number of international partners. The aircraft has been a central symbol of the U.S. military's technological and manufacturing prowess, but its long and chaotic development has cast doubt on its overall utility and cost-effectiveness.
Challenges and Cancellation Considerations
It is quite likely that the F-35 program will eventually be canceled, given its ongoing technical and financial issues. The problems associated with the F-35 do not go away, and unfortunately, the program is a force killer—devouring funds that could be allocated to crucial defense initiatives like missile defense, nuclear deterrent, and cyber defense.
The cancellation of the F-22 program offered a harrowing example of what can happen when a new fighter jet fails to meet expectations. The same issues have made the F-35 similarly uneconomical and ineffective. No one asked for the F-35 in its current form, and many stakeholders, including the various military services, hope that the program is phased out.
The F-35 Missteps: Requirements and Reality
A team I worked with wrote the requirements for the F-35 in 2001, and much of the aircraft fails to meet those demands. Under the original design, the F-35 was supposed to integrate seamlessly with a 'combat cloud' allowing for integrated satellite, radar, and processing platforms. It was expected to have a higher service ceiling for intercepting low orbitals, longer range, and operational running costs that would be half those of the F-16.
Instead, the F-35 is emerging as an obsolete design that is increasingly expensive and difficult to maintain. Low availability and high costs have led Western European nations, which have taken on the F-35, to be extremely disappointed. The plane does not perform as advertised and fails to meet European defense objectives. This has sparked chants of cancellation, particularly with the current political landscape.
The Cost of the F-35 Program
A major issue with the F-35 has been cost overruns. Under EU law, Belgium, for instance, is required to disclose the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). This has revealed that the F-35 costs over 320-350 million dollars per plane, which is far more than the initial expectations. The running costs are also significantly higher, reaching up to 85k per flight hour, which is unfeasible for a workhorse aircraft. The F-16, which the F-35 is intended to replace, has a much lower operational cost.
The Real Reason Behind Potential Cancellation
Several factors contribute to the F-35's ultimate cancellation. Corporate fraud, mismanagement, and a lack of actual combat readiness have plagued the program. The oversight and acceptance rules for the aircraft were rewritten, leading to a much higher cost than initially stated.
For example, the F-22 program was equally costly and faced similar issues. Despite its advanced capabilities, it required special infrastructure and had poor range and service ceiling. These shortcomings are mirrored in the F-35, leading to questions about its viability and utility.
The Role of Political Figures and Future Outlook
Political factors also play a significant role in the future of the F-35 program. The cancellation can be blamed on Obama, and with a second term for Trump, it is highly likely he would decide to phase out the F-35. Western European nations, including the UK, have been critical of the F-35's performance, and the Eurofighter Typhoon, as an example, has proven to be a superior choice for several key roles.
Furthermore, the program faces consistent delays and operational availability issues. With only 20% system availability expected in the next few years, the F-35 is being seen as a drain on resources for which it does not deliver. The potential cancellation will bring an end to this insanity, with the F-35 morphing into a more operational and cost-effective aircraft that can truly serve as the tip of the spear for the Europeans.
Conclusion: A Future Without the F-35?
The F-35, while a technological marvel, is facing a storm of criticism and financial challenges. If Trump is re-elected, the cancellation of the program is almost guaranteed to be implemented, with fingers pointing towards Obama. However, the overall upgrade and development activities for the F-35 will likely slow down, as other aircraft models will continue to receive maintenance and support.
The F-35's future is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the program will be a footnote in history if it is not fundamentally retooled or cancelled. In light of these challenges, the future of the F-35 hangs in the balance, and the world of defense procurement will no doubt be watching closely.